9 October 2024
US CONSUMER PRICE INDEX AND UNEMPLOYMENT

US CONSUMER PRICE INDEX AND UNEMPLOYMENT FOR THE LAST 75 YEARS

Over the last 75 years, the United States economy has experienced significant shifts, driven by various macroeconomic factors, policy decisions, and global events. Two of the most critical indicators that economists, policymakers, and analysts monitor closely to analyze the health and stability of the economy are the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Unemployment Rate.

Historical Overview of CPI and Unemployment Rate

The data from 1948 to July 2024 reveals distinct phases in the relationship between the CPI and the unemployment rate, often influenced by various economic, political, and social factors.

Post-World War II Economic Boom (1948-1960)

The period following World War II saw moderate inflation, with the CPI steadily increasing from 23.68 in January 1948 to 29.81 by December 1960. This increase reflects the post-war economic expansion and rising consumer demand.

The unemployment rate during this period exhibited relative stability, fluctuating between 2.5% and 7.9%. The late 1940s and early 1950s experienced low unemployment, which can be attributed to strong industrial growth and the reintegration of soldiers into the workforce. However, the recession of 1953-1954 led to a temporary spike in unemployment to 7.9%.

The 1960s: The Golden Age of Economic Growth (1961-1969)

The 1960s were characterized by economic prosperity and relatively low inflation. The CPI rose gradually from 29.84 in January 1961 to 37.70 in December 1969. The stable price levels resulted from robust economic policies and technological advancements.

Unemployment remained low throughout the 1960s, from 3.4% to 6.9%. The period is often called the “Golden Age” of American capitalism, marked by high productivity and low unemployment rates.

Stagflation of the 1970s (1970-1980)

The 1970s were a tumultuous decade for the U.S. economy, marked by stagflation—a combination of high inflation and high unemployment. The CPI soared from 37.90 in January 1970 to 82.40 by December 1980. The sharp increase in prices was largely driven by the oil crises of 1973 and 1979, which led to skyrocketing energy costs and widespread inflation.

Unemployment during this decade fluctuated significantly, peaking at 9.0% in May 1975 due to the 1973-1975 recession. High unemployment and inflation posed significant challenges for policymakers, leading to reevaluating economic theories and policies.

The Volcker Shock and Reaganomics (1981-1990)

In response to the stagflation of the 1970s, the Federal Reserve, under Chairman Paul Volcker, implemented aggressive monetary policies aimed at curbing inflation. These measures, known as the “Volcker Shock,” resulted in a sharp deceleration of CPI growth, with the index increasing from 87.00 in January 1981 to 130.70 by December 1990.

The unemployment rate initially spiked to 10.8% in December 1982, the highest since the Great Depression, due to the tight monetary policies. However, the economy gradually recovered, and by the late 1980s, unemployment had decreased to around 5.4%, reflecting the impact of Reaganomics—a series of economic policies that emphasized tax cuts, deregulation, and free-market principles.

The 1990s: The Technology Boom and Economic Prosperity (1991-2000)

The 1990s witnessed a period of low and stable inflation, with the CPI increasing from 133.00 in January 1991 to 168.80 by December 2000. The introduction of new technologies, particularly in the information technology sector, contributed to productivity gains and price stability.

The unemployment rate saw a significant decline throughout the 1990s, reaching a low of 3.8% in April 2000. The technology boom, coupled with globalization and favorable economic policies, drove strong economic growth and job creation during this period.

The Great Recession and Its Aftermath (2001-2010)

The early 2000s were marked by economic uncertainty, with the CPI rising from 172.20 in January 2001 to 218.06 by December 2010. The period included the aftermath of the dot-com bubble, the housing market crash, and the global financial crisis of 2007-2008.

The unemployment rate increased significantly during the Great Recession, peaking at 10% in October 2009. The financial crisis led to widespread job losses, and the subsequent recovery was slow and uneven.

Economic Recovery and the COVID-19 Pandemic (2011-2024)

The decade following the Great Recession saw a gradual recovery, with the CPI increasing from 220.31 in January 2011 to over 300 by 2023. However, the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 introduced new challenges, leading to a brief period of deflation followed by significant inflationary pressures due to supply chain disruptions and stimulus measures.

The unemployment rate steadily declined after the Great Recession, reaching a historic low of 3.5% in February 2020. However, the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic led to a sharp spike in unemployment, reaching 14.7% in April 2020. The labor market gradually recovered, with unemployment returning to pre-pandemic levels by 2022.

Graph 1: US Consumer Price Index and Unemployment Rate for the Last 75 Years

US CONSUMER PRICE INDEX AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FOR LAST 75 YEARS

Table 1: US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the Last 75 Years (1948 to July 2024)

YEARJANFEBMARAPRMAYJUNEJULYAUGSEPTOCTNOVDEC
194823.723.723.523.824.024.224.424.424.424.324.224.1
194924.023.923.923.923.923.923.723.723.823.723.723.6
195023.523.623.623.723.823.924.124.224.324.524.625.0
195125.425.825.925.926.025.925.925.926.026.226.326.5
195226.526.426.426.526.526.526.726.726.626.726.726.7
195326.626.626.626.726.726.826.826.926.927.026.926.9
195426.927.026.926.926.926.926.926.926.826.726.826.8
195526.826.826.826.826.826.726.826.726.926.826.926.9
195626.826.926.926.927.027.227.327.327.427.527.527.6
195727.727.827.927.928.028.128.228.328.328.328.428.5
195828.628.728.928.928.928.928.928.928.928.929.029.0
195929.029.029.029.029.029.129.229.229.329.429.429.4
196029.429.429.429.529.629.629.629.629.629.829.829.8
196129.829.829.829.829.829.829.929.930.030.030.030.0
196230.030.130.230.230.230.230.230.330.430.430.430.4
196330.430.530.530.530.530.630.730.830.730.830.830.9
196430.930.930.931.031.031.031.031.131.131.131.231.3
196531.331.331.331.431.531.631.631.631.631.731.831.9
196631.932.132.232.332.432.432.532.732.832.932.932.9
196732.933.033.033.133.133.333.433.533.633.733.934.0
196834.134.234.334.434.534.734.935.035.135.335.435.6
196935.735.836.136.336.436.636.836.937.137.337.537.7
197037.938.138.338.538.638.838.939.039.239.439.639.8
197139.939.940.040.140.340.540.640.740.840.941.041.1
197241.241.441.441.541.641.741.841.942.142.242.442.5
197342.743.043.443.743.944.244.245.045.245.645.946.3
197446.847.347.848.148.649.049.349.950.651.051.551.9
197552.352.652.853.053.153.554.054.254.654.955.355.6
197655.855.956.056.156.456.757.057.357.657.958.158.4
197758.759.359.660.060.260.560.861.161.361.662.062.3
197862.763.063.463.964.565.065.565.966.567.167.567.9
197968.569.269.970.671.472.273.073.774.475.276.076.9
198078.079.080.180.981.782.582.683.283.984.785.686.4
198187.288.088.689.189.790.591.592.293.193.493.894.1
198294.494.794.795.095.997.097.597.797.798.198.097.7
198397.998.098.198.899.299.499.8100.1100.4100.8101.1101.4
1984102.1102.6102.9103.3103.5103.7104.1104.4104.7105.1105.3105.5
1985105.7106.3106.8107.0107.2107.5107.7107.9108.1108.5109.0109.5
1986109.9109.7109.1108.7109.0109.4109.5109.6110.0110.2110.4110.8
1987111.4111.8112.2112.7113.0113.5113.8114.3114.7115.0115.4115.6
1988116.0116.2116.5117.2117.5118.0118.5119.0119.5119.9120.3120.7
1989121.2121.6122.2123.1123.7124.1124.5124.5124.8125.4125.9126.3
1990127.5128.0128.6128.9129.1129.9130.5131.6132.5133.4133.7134.2
1991134.7134.8134.8135.1135.6136.0136.2136.6137.0137.2137.8138.2
1992138.3138.6139.1139.4139.7140.1140.5140.8141.1141.7142.1142.3
1993142.8143.1143.3143.8144.2144.3144.5144.8145.0145.6146.0146.3
1994146.3146.7147.1147.2147.5147.9148.4149.0149.3149.4149.8150.1
1995150.5150.9151.2151.8152.1152.4152.6152.9153.1153.5153.7153.9
1996154.7155.0155.5156.1156.4156.7157.0157.2157.7158.2158.7159.1
1997159.4159.7159.8159.9159.9160.2160.4160.8161.2161.5161.7161.8
1998162.0162.0162.0162.2162.6162.8163.2163.4163.5163.9164.1164.4
1999164.7164.7164.8165.9166.0166.0166.7167.1167.8168.1168.4168.8
2000169.3170.0171.0170.9171.2172.2172.7172.7173.6173.9174.2174.6
2001175.6176.0176.1176.4177.3177.7177.4177.4178.1177.6177.5177.4
2002177.7178.0178.5179.3179.5179.6180.0180.5180.8181.2181.5181.8
2003182.6183.6183.9183.2182.9183.1183.7184.5185.1184.9185.0185.5
2004186.3186.7187.1187.4188.2188.9189.1189.2189.8190.8191.7191.7
2005191.6192.4193.1193.7193.6193.7194.9196.1198.8199.1198.1198.1
2006199.3199.4199.7200.7201.3201.8202.9203.8202.8201.9202.0203.1
2007203.4204.2205.3205.9206.8207.2207.6207.7208.5209.2210.8211.4
2008212.2212.7213.4213.9215.2217.5219.0218.7218.9217.0213.2211.4
2009211.9212.7212.5212.7213.0214.8214.7215.4215.9216.5217.2217.3
2010217.5217.3217.4217.4217.3217.2217.6217.9218.3219.0219.6220.5
2011221.2221.9223.0224.1224.8224.8225.4226.1226.6226.8227.2227.2
2012227.8228.3228.8229.2228.7228.5228.6229.9231.0231.6231.2231.2
2013231.7232.9232.3231.8231.9232.4232.9233.5233.5233.7234.1234.7
2014235.3235.5236.0236.5236.9237.2237.5237.5237.5237.4237.0236.3
2015234.7235.3236.0236.2237.0237.7238.0238.0237.5237.7238.0237.8
2016237.7237.3238.1239.0239.6240.2240.1240.5241.2241.7242.0242.6
2017243.6244.0243.9244.2244.0244.2244.2245.2246.4246.6247.3247.8
2018248.9249.5249.6250.2250.8251.0251.2251.7252.2252.8252.6252.8
2019252.6253.3254.3255.2255.3255.2255.8256.0256.4257.2257.9258.6
2020258.9259.2258.2256.1255.8257.0258.4259.4260.0260.2260.9262.0
2021262.5263.6264.9266.8268.5270.7272.0272.8273.9276.4278.8280.8
2022282.4284.5287.6288.8291.4295.0295.0295.2296.3297.9298.6298.8
2023300.4301.5301.7303.0303.4304.0304.6306.2307.3307.5308.0308.7
2024309.7311.1312.2313.2313.2313.0313.5     
Source: US Bureau of Labour Statistics

Table 2: US Unemployment Rate for the Last 75 Years (1948 to July 2024)

YEARJANFEBMARAPRMAYJUNEJULYAUGSEPTOCTNOVDEC
19483.43.843.93.53.63.63.93.83.73.84
19494.34.755.36.16.26.76.86.67.96.46.6
19506.56.46.35.85.55.454.54.44.24.24.3
19513.73.43.43.133.23.13.13.33.53.53.1
19523.23.12.92.9333.23.43.132.82.7
19532.92.62.62.72.52.52.62.72.93.13.54.5
19544.95.25.75.95.95.65.866.15.75.35
19554.94.74.64.74.34.244.24.14.34.24.2
195643.94.244.34.34.44.13.93.94.34.2
19574.23.93.73.94.14.34.24.14.44.55.15.2
19585.86.46.77.47.47.37.57.47.16.76.26.2
195965.95.65.25.155.15.25.55.75.85.3
19605.24.85.45.25.15.45.55.65.56.16.16.6
19616.66.96.977.16.976.66.76.56.16
19625.85.55.65.65.55.55.45.75.65.45.75.5
19635.75.95.75.75.95.65.65.45.55.55.75.5
19645.65.45.45.35.15.24.955.15.14.85
19654.95.14.74.84.64.64.44.44.34.24.14
196643.83.83.83.93.83.83.83.73.73.63.8
19673.93.83.83.83.83.93.83.83.843.93.8
19683.73.83.73.53.53.73.73.53.43.43.43.4
19693.43.43.43.43.43.53.53.53.73.73.53.5
19703.94.24.44.64.84.955.15.45.55.96.1
19715.95.965.95.95.966.165.866
19725.85.75.85.75.75.75.65.65.55.65.35.2
19734.954.954.94.94.84.84.84.64.84.9
19745.15.25.15.15.15.45.55.55.966.67.2
19758.18.18.68.898.88.68.48.48.48.38.2
19767.97.77.67.77.47.67.87.87.67.77.87.8
19777.57.67.47.277.26.976.86.86.86.4
19786.46.36.36.165.96.25.965.85.96
19795.95.95.85.85.65.75.765.965.96
19806.36.36.36.97.57.67.87.77.57.57.57.2
19817.57.47.47.27.57.57.27.47.67.98.38.5
19828.68.999.39.49.69.89.810.110.410.810.8
198310.410.410.310.210.110.19.49.59.28.88.58.3
198487.87.87.77.47.27.57.57.37.47.27.3
19857.37.27.27.37.27.47.47.17.17.177
19866.77.27.27.17.27.276.9776.96.6
19876.66.66.66.36.36.26.165.965.85.7
19885.75.75.75.45.65.45.45.65.45.45.35.3
19895.45.255.25.25.35.25.25.35.35.45.4
19905.45.35.25.45.45.25.55.75.95.96.26.3
19916.46.66.86.76.96.96.86.96.9777.3
19927.37.47.47.47.67.87.77.67.67.37.47.4
19937.37.177.17.176.96.86.76.86.66.5
19946.66.66.56.46.16.16.165.95.85.65.5
19955.65.45.45.85.65.65.75.75.65.55.65.6
19965.65.55.55.65.65.35.55.15.25.25.45.4
19975.35.25.25.14.954.94.84.94.74.64.7
19984.64.64.74.34.44.54.54.54.64.54.44.4
19994.34.44.24.34.24.34.34.24.24.14.14
200044.143.84444.13.93.93.93.9
20014.24.24.34.44.34.54.64.955.35.55.7
20025.75.75.75.95.85.85.85.75.75.75.96
20035.85.95.966.16.36.26.16.165.85.7
20045.75.65.85.65.65.65.55.45.45.55.45.4
20055.35.45.25.25.1554.95554.9
20064.74.84.74.74.64.64.74.74.54.44.54.4
20074.64.54.44.54.44.64.74.64.74.74.75
200854.95.155.45.65.86.16.16.56.87.3
20097.88.38.799.49.59.59.69.8109.99.9
20109.89.89.99.99.69.49.49.59.59.49.89.3
20119.1999.199.19998.88.68.5
20128.38.38.28.28.28.28.28.17.87.87.77.9
201387.77.57.67.57.57.37.27.27.26.96.7
20146.66.76.76.26.36.16.26.15.95.75.85.6
20155.75.55.45.45.65.35.25.1555.15
20164.84.955.14.84.94.84.954.94.74.7
20174.74.64.44.44.44.34.34.44.34.24.24.1
201844.1443.843.83.83.73.83.83.9
201943.83.83.73.63.63.73.63.53.63.63.6
20203.63.54.414.813.21110.28.47.86.86.76.7
20216.46.26.16.15.85.95.45.14.74.54.13.9
202243.83.63.73.63.63.53.63.53.63.63.5
20233.43.63.53.43.73.63.53.83.83.83.73.7
20243.73.93.83.944.14.3     
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

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